Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Sullivan: Why Mega-Rallies Are Important

Namely, they help drive fundraising. That's certainly true, but there's another reason.

Obama's support among young people is a huge factor in convincing older voters -- as well as superdelegates and party elites -- to back him. For a voter or superdel on the fence, seeing 75,000 people at an Obama rally could be a tie-breaking factor in their decision. Look at the Obama endorsement from Bob Casey, the pseudo-endorsement from Jimmy Carter, and the turncoat endorsement from George McGovern. Each cited the influence of Obama-supporting children and grandchildren. I don't think the appearance (if not the reality) of Obama's appeal to that desperately important (at least in the eyes of superdelegates who know the power of cementing party loyalty early in a voter's life) demographic with decades of voting ahead of it can be overestimated. Even when Jeremiah Wright and Bittergate had eroded some of Obama's cross-over appeal (and thus some of his appeal to superdels), Obama could still point to his ability to animate young voters, with the gargantuanness of his rallies being an important and tangible piece of evidence. In other words, public opinion polls and exit polls aren't enough. But if you can come to a rally to see Obama speak, you can come to a demonstration protesting a decision by the superdelegates to overturn the pledged delegate majority. For elites these things have real psychological heft.