Gallup: Prophet or Sitting Duck?

It's one thing for everyone to say that polls are woefully imprecise. It's another thing to tolerate a poll that simply ignores furious criticism of its methods and then gets torpedoed on election day by a final tally totally unfamiliar to the polls. Today's Gallup poll has Bush up 5 points. I have no idea if this number will hold in the Gallup, and even less idea if it will accurately capture what voters do on November 2. But what is clear is that Gallup has really staked its reputation on NOT correcting for Republican over-representation in its voter samples. This methodology could be hailed as prophetic -- or it could become a huge liability for the country's oldest polling institution. If Gallup gets it wrong, it's going to look like the biggest asshole around.

Today's polls: