Fisking the Pollsters
What's up with all these widely divergent polls -- and how did Fox News end up with the most pro-Kerry poll of all? Kevin Drum argues:
The latest Fox News poll puts Bush ahead of Kerry 47%-45%. The latest Washington Post poll puts Bush ahead of Kerry 52%-43%. That's a mighty big difference.
And of course, we all know what happened last weekend, when both Time and Newsweek released polls showing double-digit leads for Bush while Zogby and Rasmussen showed leads of only a few points.
I'm not sure why this year's polls are so wildly out of sync, but I suspect what we're seeing these days is less a clash of polling and more a clash of polling models. The variance seems to be mostly a product of different algorithms for identifying "likely" voters, which means the most accurate poll is whichever one has the best algorithm.
So who has the best algorithm? And why have the various algorithms suddenly started producing such divergent results?
I wish I knew, but there sure seems to be something funny in the air. For now, I think the most we can say is that Bush seems to be a few points ahead. How many is a "few"? Your mileage may vary.
___________
Drum further argues that Bush can only maintain a lead as long as people remain in the dark about how bad things are right now in Iraq:
We're apparently making a big push to regain control of rebel strongholds in Iraq, but so far the story is more depressing than anything else:
"This is a significant step forward where the good people of Samarra are taking control of their destiny," said Maj. Gen. John Batiste, commander of the Army's 1st Infantry Division. His troops entered the city for less than 24 hours, oversaw the selection of new civic leaders, and declared the military's intention to return to help staff checkpoints in coming days.
...."We will never give up our right to maneuver in any of our areas," said Maj. Neal O'Brien of the 1st Infantry Division, which patrols four provinces north of Baghdad.
....U.S. troops pulled out at the end of the day for lack of a secure base at which to spend the night.
Even to a military non-expert like me this seems ridiculous. We're not going to win a guerrilla war by bombing cities and then hopping in for a few hours to put on a show of electing new civic leaders. If this is the plan, we're in big trouble.
_______
Agreed.
The latest Fox News poll puts Bush ahead of Kerry 47%-45%. The latest Washington Post poll puts Bush ahead of Kerry 52%-43%. That's a mighty big difference.
And of course, we all know what happened last weekend, when both Time and Newsweek released polls showing double-digit leads for Bush while Zogby and Rasmussen showed leads of only a few points.
I'm not sure why this year's polls are so wildly out of sync, but I suspect what we're seeing these days is less a clash of polling and more a clash of polling models. The variance seems to be mostly a product of different algorithms for identifying "likely" voters, which means the most accurate poll is whichever one has the best algorithm.
So who has the best algorithm? And why have the various algorithms suddenly started producing such divergent results?
I wish I knew, but there sure seems to be something funny in the air. For now, I think the most we can say is that Bush seems to be a few points ahead. How many is a "few"? Your mileage may vary.
___________
Drum further argues that Bush can only maintain a lead as long as people remain in the dark about how bad things are right now in Iraq:
We're apparently making a big push to regain control of rebel strongholds in Iraq, but so far the story is more depressing than anything else:
"This is a significant step forward where the good people of Samarra are taking control of their destiny," said Maj. Gen. John Batiste, commander of the Army's 1st Infantry Division. His troops entered the city for less than 24 hours, oversaw the selection of new civic leaders, and declared the military's intention to return to help staff checkpoints in coming days.
...."We will never give up our right to maneuver in any of our areas," said Maj. Neal O'Brien of the 1st Infantry Division, which patrols four provinces north of Baghdad.
....U.S. troops pulled out at the end of the day for lack of a secure base at which to spend the night.
Even to a military non-expert like me this seems ridiculous. We're not going to win a guerrilla war by bombing cities and then hopping in for a few hours to put on a show of electing new civic leaders. If this is the plan, we're in big trouble.
_______
Agreed.
posted by hellisotherpeople at 11:26 AM
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